AiQ Quick Note: "Reality POTUS, Lunar Feud"
Can We Look to Profit from the Trump and Elon's Breakup?
This’ll be a quick one, mostly because I’m still busy watching the leader of the Free World and the world’s richest man go full WWE on social media. Having lived both inside and outside the U.S., you almost forget how comfortably numb Americans have become to public vitriol and bad behavior.
But this? This is a whole new level of public dysfunction—even by the standards of Trump 2.0.
Now, if you've been following along, you know I’ve been writing a series titled “Becoming Argentina,” where I make the not-exaggerated case that Trump’s economic policies are following the classic Emerging Market playbook. We’re talking central planning, personality cults, and just enough fiscal juice to keep inflation above whatever was last month’s target.
Today was our first look at EM politics in America, which is not supposed to happen.
It’s so surreal it feels scripted. Like watching your neighbor’s wife hurl garbage bags of clothes out the second-story window—screaming deeply personal insults—while the HOA security team awkwardly huddles with her husband, still dressed from the night’s costume party. Yeah, that’s pretty much where we are right now.
Now, let’s be clear: Elon probably knows more than any American alive about the inner workings of this administration and the risks of the current policy path. So this isn’t just a petty squabble. This is a "Strategic Divorce: You’re Fired to Mars." Markets must brace for blowback and unintended consequences if this does not go away ASAP.
Elon’s not just taking shots, he’s calling the bluff before the “tough guy” routine gets going. And he knows the thing no one wants to say out loud: nobody—literally nobody—wants Boeing building spaceships. Not the astronauts. Not NASA. Possibly not even Boeing with Trump’s tariffs ramping up.
The difficult reality for American farmers and agriculture is that it again falls to the bottom of the list—as the list keeps growing. For this reason, let’s try to get proactive and figure out how to position ourselves ahead of the crowd.
The newly proposed tax bill is quickly morphing into a political poison pill, especially after Elon Musk’s influence in the 2024 election. What was intended as cornerstone legislation to juice artificial intelligence, investment, and the next fiscal impulse could become a litmus test for loyalty and populist optics.
Any lawmaker backing visible “pork” or special interest carveouts in the coming days risks putting a target on their back. With voters increasingly tuned in, politicians may find themselves in the court of public opinion when reelection season rolls around. Suddenly, it is all up in the air.
My view is that this toothpaste is out of the tube. Trump “supporters” looking for an excuse to abandon ship, just got one. I don’t know if Elon accounted for 8% or 15% of Trump’s popular vote, but it’s a big number. America has picked fights on all fronts, and a lame duck president not halfway to midterms is a problem.
Enough Memes, So What Does It All Mean?
The purpose of this note is to highlight a subtle but accelerating shift in macro markets: they’ve begun pricing in a dual threat—higher structural inflation and a mounting risk of economic slowdown. At the same time, Powell finds himself unable to cut rates without further fueling inflation. Meanwhile, Trump’s recent social media posts offer perhaps the clearest signal yet that he’s prepared to pressure the dollar more akin to an emerging market currency than the global reserve.
Today’s call with Angie, Eduardo, and Karl was timely because we discussed the increasing role the FX is playing in ag competitiveness. The Brazilian real and the U.S. dollar are actively steering commodity flows and reshaping export competitiveness. We haven’t seen currencies exert this level of influence since the mid-2010s, when the real devalued sharply from 2.0 to 4.1 and the Chinese yuan weakened from 6 to 7.
The Russian ruble has shown surprising strength in recent weeks, driven not by economic resilience but by the Kremlin’s ongoing battle with elevated domestic inflation, itself a byproduct of prolonged sanctions and wartime spending. This is pushing wheat demand to other origins, even as far as the USA.
Trade flows and pricing decisions must adjust to this new reality.
In this environment, foreign exchange is no longer a passive backdrop; it is fast becoming a primary driver of competitive advantage and trade behavior. Expect currency markets to play a more central role in the global macro narrative in the months ahead.
This Creates Another Potentially Favorable Dynamic for Soybeans
In our May note, Raise Your AiQ: Don't Chase the Wx Narratives. Soybeans Should Have Your Attention, we make the case that soybeans are the critical crop to watch.
Consider that at $10, US farmers don’t want to plant soybeans. In South America, current prices favor corn over soybeans for full-season crops in marginal areas. This is primarily southern Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay.
After today’s episode of Reality Potus: Lunar Feud (a great show title for Trump’s White House, amirite?), macro and trade uncertainty ratchets up another notch—possibly making a trade deal more likely and soybeans a bit cheaper via the FX.
I posted the comment below as a joke, but not really. If Trump gets backed into a corner, trade deals and “easy wins” could come fast. It’s difficult to imagine a world where Trump wants additional scrutiny on himself or his family members.
Agriculture is an easy win. U.S. commodities are globally competitive, and the admin’s policy stance—particularly the preference for a structurally weaker dollar—will likely reinforce that edge. Watch the current downtrend closely; if it breaks, we could see a wave of technical buying with minimal resistance in the next leg higher. This setup positions ag markets as a potential bright spot in a volatile macro environment.
To be clear, all of this is complicated and conjecture, but don’t underestimate the importance of this feud and the ramifications if it intensifies. Donald Trump cannot fight Elon Musk, members of Congress, Putin, Xi, Brussels, and Ottawa, all while his family gets a whole new level of scrutiny.
Elon has called his bluff. If he decides to escalate, second, third, and fourth-order impacts will spill over into commodities.
Remember this post, “Human Behavior Drives Outcomes.” We don’t want to get too caught up in the narrative of the fight, but stay focused on the probability of outcomes—this is how we profit.
We are only T-Minus 10 days until the summer water market begins… Stay tuned.
Thank you for reading. Please reach out to Nico@archaiq.ai with any suggestions on how to improve our products or if you're interested in exploring new opportunities with ArchaiQ. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter at www.archaiq.ai.
This is not trading or investment advice. Trading Futures is a high-risk activity; please consult with a professional.