Risk Down, Noise Up
Week 30 Weather, Ags, & Macro
“I couldn’t really afford to use fertiliser, and I couldn’t afford not to.”
Jeremy Clarkson
Last year I wrote two pieces on platinum. The timing was lucky, but I had waited years for the breakout. Longer term, I want to be extremely bullish: platinum can trade above $5,000 and possibly regain its premium over gold, though admittedly a lot would have to go right. I want to provide a refresher after Warsh dropped the ball bigly at the FOMC. We might’ve watched a dove step out of its hawk’s skin-suit in real-time.
Platinum: “But I Was Right” Reads Every Dead Trader’s Tombstone
More on platinum in the note.
Escalation Never Sleeps
I will have a note out this weekend on Europe and China — most stories not named U.S. weather went ignored. You would not be incorrect for assuming things in Europe and the Black Sea must have improved since wheat is down 4%. Nope. If anything, Putin, Xi, the IRGC, and Houthis seem excited to call Trump’s bluff.
Barely two days after his grand photo op with Lockheed Martin and Zelenskyy, coordinating on Patriot missiles for the cameras, he’s already walking it back. So much for speaking softly and carrying a big stick.
That was one of those iconic moments that set the tone for the rise of America, no?
Your move Orange Jesus.
Last week I wrote the following to kick-off Sleeping on Soybeans.
I’m giddy again. It’s probably time to get nervous. You’ve been warned. In this week’s note:
I hope you were nervous, because Sunday afternoon was when the most advanced new AI models began turning wet. By Monday morning, the ensembles followed suit. By Tuesday, each subsequent ECMWF run came in wetter, and the rest is history. Burying crude oil certainly didn’t help.
This is precisely why your weatherman shouldn’t manage risk—they should only notify you when models shift. It’s our job to figure out how to trade it. At AiQ, we do our own weather for this exact reason.
This week the theme is“Risk Down, Noise Up” and here’s what’s on the docket:
Weather 30 weather: Considerable global changes to talk about
China’s weather takes the top end off corn and soybeans
Did Canada go from pretty darn good to not so great fast?
Cyclospora outbreak shakes buyers, when consumer confidence shows signs of weakening
The FOMC has problems, time to start planning for what it means
Positioning Comments: It’s fluid out there right now
