MOAR WORLD CUPS PLEASE
Week 26 Weather, Ags, & Macro
“Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I don’t like that attitude. I can assure them it is much more serious than that.“
— Bill Shankly (Legendary Liverpool Manager)
Happy 4th of July weekend. This week we’ll cover:
The best World Cup ever. We’re all fans now.
Upcoming Global Weather Risks (Week 27)
China’s sensational summer and demand red flags
India, France, and Mexico on the radar
Why AiQ remains long term cattle bears
The USDA needs to revamp its methodology after another wasted report
How the disinflation narrative could impact Brazil and Ags
Biases and trade ideas: wheat spreads, gold, short fats and vol to name a few
This is peak America. An Argentine coach brings swagger to America, while belting out ‘Country Roads’ as the whole world celebrates the best World Cup ever. What a scene.
Let’s make the World Cup in America mandatory every year. Happy 4th of July!
Chat, how many times has Trump posted about the ballroom, the reflecting pool, and the Men’s National Team?
1. The Ballroom: Estimated 150+ times
2. The Reflecting Pool: Estimated 10 to 15 times
3. The USMNT Soccer Team: 0 times
Oh, the media is focusing on something besides Trump? Color me shocked that he hates it. lol
Chat, is Erling Haaland or Donald Trump leading in US media coverage this week?
Even with Erling Haaland currently tearing through the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup on U.S. soil, Donald Trump still commands vastly more mainstream media coverage in the United States this week.
That’s really good news. We won’t have to tariff Norway after all.
Meanwhile in Germany, the heatwave doesn’t seem like such a big deal after the loss to Paraguay.
We can assume that since the USMNT whooped Paraguay 4-1, and Paraguay beat ze Germans in the knockout stage, then the USA is better than Germany.
No? That’s not how the transitive law of soccer works?
Here are the remaining knockout round odds.
Who ya got?
I’m going Argentina back-to-back for two reasons.
Their path to get there.
What an ending for Messi.
Why not?
Weather Risks
Improved: Australia (1), China (1), and India (4)
Deteriorated: Germany (3), Ukraine (2), and United States (2)
Again this week, the changes are a little misleading because it’s mostly on the margin. By far the most notable is how favorable China’s growing season is evolving. The entire Northeast is mild with >70 mm in the forecast. More on this below.
China’s Red Flag & Mild Summer
Below is the 45-day realized + forecast rains and temps for Heilongjiang and surrounding areas. It doesn’t get much better into the middle of July.
For reference, this is where nearly half of China’s corn grows.
Take a look at June compared with June 2024. June 2024 was blowout production. I do not believe for a second that China’s 2025 corn crop was larger than 2024, even if the NBS keeps raising it and the USDA blindly adopts whatever they say.
China’s weather is excellent. But this is not the red flag I’m referring to.
