CHYYYYYNA
a few trade ideas before the big day
"To be a bride is to be the star of a one-day revolution."
— Unknown
The next two days will set the tone, but perhaps not in the way we expect. Let’s keep an open mind. Rumors are already circulating that this will be a toned-down meeting. Even a disappointment.
But I don’t buy it! I know how reality TV goes.
I will outline why I don’t buy it before we get to the trades. Since this note is not specifically about wheat, here are a few bullet points:
Wheat closed limit up for the first time in nearly four years.
These are the highest futures prices seen in two years.
The USDA cut 32 MMT from major exporters and 25 MMT from total world production.
AiQ suggested the cuts needed to be closer to 34 MMT for major exporters and 60 MMT globally weeks ago.
Nico@NicoAIQPSA AiQ forecasts nearly 60 MMT less wheat prod in 2026/27 and 34 less from major exporters. MILLION W/an M Wheat traded 6k July contracts first 10 min last night 400 contracts is 54.4k THOUSAND tonnes. 1996 is long gone, lose the palm pilot. The world changed
Grains Gorilla @GrainsGorilla@cer_hedge 400 new registrations out of Toledo by the Andersons!!! Deliveries coming!9:22 AM · Apr 30, 2026 · 814 Views6 Likes
Congratulations to the USDA for its excellent work; they are finally moving in the right direction. Executive briefing is here.
DO NOT FORGET: Yesterday was Day 1 of reconciling overstated global balance sheets. Well done, AiQ team.
A risk manager from a multinational asked me this morning, “What happens if we don’t get the agricultural purchases this week?”
My response: “Get prepared for war in two weeks.”
I was kidding. Sort of.
You do not ruin the bride’s wedding day and get away with it. Or is this more of a Quinceañera after a disastrous first 15 months? I don’t know, but this is not about me, you, America, or CHYYYYNA. This is about the one and only.
Thankfully, Elon clarified that all of these CEOs were not together—only the most important ones.
Anything to distract the 600,000 Americans who made down payments on their Trump phones, and didn’t read the fine print 😂😂😂
Am I Wantonly Antagonizing Readers?
I don’t intentionally antagonize readers. Hold up. That’s not entirely true.
Anyone who calls this research. Absolutely, I will make fun of your “process.”
There is a reason I am focusing this section on the Trump family’s endless grift of the American voter and taxpayer. There is a harsh lesson we need to learn—and not soon forget—especially on the eve of the big day in CHYYYYNA!
This is not American capitalism, but these ARE unaccountable capitalists. For the sake of clarity, we will refer to them as Kapitalists with a “K.”
This is the system for thee, but not for you and me.
One of the most important distinctions for understanding the dynamics of the current world and its historical emergence is that between capitalists and capitalism. Capitalists are economic actors oriented toward profit. As long-distance merchants, financiers of princes, and tax farmers they have existed in a wide variety of societies for thousands of years. Capitalism, in contrast, is a system of all-round market dependence that emerged much more recently and in a much more geographically restricted area (in the Low Countries and England in the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries). It should never be forgotten that capitalists generally loathe capitalism, especially its competitive constraint. They would prefer to make profits through rent-seeking and political extraction without risking their wealth on uncertain investments. Indeed, the most obvious threat to capitalism today comes not from the working class, but paradoxically from capitalists who with increasing success have figured how to profit by plunder rather than productive investment.
Trump is losing (or perhaps has already lost) his base. He is in CHYYYYYNA, hauling along America’s most powerful CEOs to provide his voter base with proof that the “Trade Deal Home Run” episode of his reality-show administration will be
so great, so lasting, and so economically transformative
that they can look past the blatant corruption and “Biden Part Deux” inflation.
I have written about this outcome to my investors since the summer before the election (2024). Trump telegraphed his intentions if you were willing to listen.
Did Americans vote for him to drag America’s brass to Beijing to do a deal? Isn’t that the exact opposite of what they thought they voted for?
He’s telegraphing his intentions again—this time, on a much larger scale. This is why we are adding to these positions before the big announcement:
Long: 2027 Soybean Meal
Short: Live & Feeder Cattle
Long: New Crop Cotton
I am buying more convexity across the agricultural complex, and I will explain the rationale below. I apologize if you are a rancher, a packaged food group, or a poultry company that donated to the campaign. Populists and Kapitalists serve their own interests, not yours.
I’m almost giddy to see how this ages…
My Guess: Warm Goat’s Milk
Corn Risk
It always starts with corn. The ag experts are like, “Hey, we got 95 million acres in the bank because someone who doesn’t do the work said it’s true.”
