"Advice"
AiQ Comments for the Upcoming 2026 Ag Outlook Forum (AOF)
"People give me advice, but I believe they are talking to themselves."
— Rustin Cohle (True Detective)
Here’s some free advice for the traders: the timing is usually more important than the thesis.
A Lesson on Advice
Years ago, I was on the first tee watching a guy address the ball. He clearly didn’t know the course, which was playing tough just weeks before hosting a PGA event. I walked up: “You by yourself? Let’s play. I’ll show you the lines.”
“Nah, I’m an old man. I’ll just slow you down,” he replied.
“What else do I have to do on a Sunday?”
He turned out to be a semi-famous owner of a professional sports team, then on its way to becoming an annual title contender. At the end of the round, he asked, “Can I give you some advice?”
I jumped the gun: “Yeah, of course.”
“Wrong answer,” he countered. “Advice is usually just people wanting to hear themselves talk. Only take advice from those willing to invest in the outcome.” That insight has served me better than almost any other.
Good Advice
If your analyst can’t question narratives contradicted by price action, or your broker’s shtick never evolves, it’s time to rethink your process. We aren’t always right, but we are building tools and trading real capital. If you aren’t making money or learning, don’t subscribe. Don’t pay. Time and capital are your ultimate constraints.
I’ve been vocal about why I’m over X. Even once-credible creators have become clickbait shills.
If you follow us, challenge us. Point out where we’re wrong; ask how we’ve improved. Test every tool. Change your opinion as often as the data dictates. Don’t let anyone—including us—take your business for granted. Demand free trials. Competition is healthy; make everyone earn every penny. Our accountability to our investors and clients compels us to continually evolve. That is our investment in the outcome. We don’t talk to hear ourselves speak.
Economic “Gravity” and SCOTUS on Tariffs
This is our current reality: the administration's tariffs are taxes on Americans, but the government needs the revenue. Because we can’t economically produce enough domestically right now, the only "solution" is to increase imports—creating a bizarre policy paradox. Government spending is crowding out the private sector, and data centers are the economy’s main driver. Strange times in 2026.
Midterms are slipping away from Republicans, prompting major policy reversals. Why does this matter for the Agricultural Outlook Forum (AOF)? Because market forces are reclaiming the narrative.
All leaders will eventually admit "gravity exists."
Friday will set the tone for agriculture markets over the next 90 days, and SCOTUS should rule on tariffs. The landscape could look very different by April.
Don’t forget: option expiration is also Friday, and it’s significant for corn, soybeans, and soybean oil. We will have a brief note out shortly.
